|
|
Market for EVs and hybrids could be exaggerated, say analysts
publication date: Oct 29, 2010
|
author/source: Robin Roberts
Future global demand for hybrid and battery electric vehicles may be over-hyped, according to a study.
Combined global sales of hybrid electric vehicles
(HEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to total 5.2 million
units in 2020, or just 7.3 percent of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles
forecasted to be sold worldwide by that year, according to a report issued by
J.D. Power and Associates. | For comparison, global HEV and BEV sales in 2010
are forecasted to total 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2 percent of the 44.7 million
vehicles projected to be sold through the end of 2010.
The report, titled "Drive Green 2020: More Hope
than Reality" considers various factors affecting the future potential
for "green" vehicles in the world's largest automotive markets.
These factors
include market trends, regulatory environment, consumer sentiment and
technology development in these markets.
"While considerable interest exists among
governments, media and environmentalists in promoting HEVs and BEVs, consumers
will ultimately decide whether these vehicles are commercially successful or
not," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at
J.D. Power and Associates.
"Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward
these technologies-and barring significant changes to public policy, including
tax incentives and higher fuel economy standards-we don't anticipate a mass
migration to green vehicles in the coming decade." | | According to the report, it will be difficult to
convince large numbers of consumers to switch from conventionally powered
passenger vehicles to HEVs and BEVs.
A consumer migration to alternative
powertrain technologies will most likely require either one of the following
scenarios, or some combination of these scenarios:
· A significant increase in the global price of
petroleum-based fuels by 2020
· A substantial breakthrough in green technologies
that would reduce costs and improve consumer confidence
· A coordinated government policy to encourage
consumers to purchase these vehicles.
Based on currently available information, none of
these scenarios are believed to be likely during the next 10 years. | | | | |
Download the Wheels Within Wales toolbar for your quickest way to keep in touch with everything that's happening on Welsh roads and in showrooms or use our RSS feed for the headlines you will not want to miss
|
|
|
.gif){kind=small}